NFL Draft Steals: 3 Players Who Could Outperform Draft Stock

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The NFL Draft inspires hope in fans of every team, particularly in the first round when the flashiest, most well-known college prospects are taken. This year, Cam Ward, Abdul Carter, and Travis Hunter headline an exciting class – but who are some of the players that could prove to be steals later on in the draft?

Iโ€™m not talking about guys that are projected to go on day two, or even day three in some cases – Iโ€™m talking about some sicko-level analysis – players that Dane Brugler didnโ€™t even write about in his infamous yearly draft guide, โ€œThe Beastโ€.

This trio of players isnโ€™t necessarily going to blow you away, but they could prove to be capable NFL roster depth. Like I said – these guys arenโ€™t talked about much – even by day three standards go.

Elijhah Badger, WR, Florida

Elijhah Badger is an electric athlete at the wide receiver position who has been productive in each of his last three years in college. Originally a four-star recruit out of California, Badger spent four years in Tempe with Arizona State before transferring to Florida.

Standing at 6-foot-1, 200 pounds, Badgerโ€™s athletic profile is comparable to more twitched-up WRs at the NFL level.

Badger has hit 700 yards in each of his last three seasons, with 14 TDs in that period – he led the Florida Gators in receiving yards and touchdowns this season, earning nearly a fourth of the teamโ€™s total air yards.

Badger is a deep threat, through and through. He averaged over 20 yards per reception last year, with multiple catches of more than 50 yards.

In the NFL, Badger could carve out a role as someone who can stretch the field from an outside wide receiver alignment. Itโ€™s unlikely that Badger will ever be a primary or even secondary target, but his ability to create space for others provides value late in the draft. 

Additionally, Badger is an easier sell later in the draft as someone who has return experience from his time at Arizona State – he averaged more than 28 yards per return in 2023 (20 returns).

Between his ability to contribute on special teams and potential to grow as a down-the-field threat, Badger has a high likelihood of providing surplus value as either a late-round pick or an undrafted free agent.

James Carpenter, DL, Indiana

The Indiana Hoosiers completely re-made their interior defensive line this past season – and saw huge contributions from transfer players CJ West and James Carpenter. West, on one hand, is likely to be selected as early as the second day of the NFL draft.
Carpenter, however, is more likely to go undrafted.

And thatโ€™s not without good reason – Carpenter, a transfer from James Madison, has outlier size (and not in a good way). He stands at just 6-foot-1 and not even 300 pounds – thatโ€™s not great for an interior defensive lineman.

Carpenter does have solid speed metrics, though he may simply not have the size and strength requirements to hang at the NFL level.

But he does bring an interesting skill set – heโ€™s a pass-rushing 3-technique that got significantly better as the season went along for Indiana.

After only registering 13 pressures in his first seven games this past year, Carpenter came along in a major way – wracking up 26 pressures in his final six games of the year – including six that came against Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff.

Carpenter also provides some value on special teams – he was a fixture for Indianaโ€™s punt coverage and kick blocking units – including this play:

Thereโ€™s reason to believe Carpenter is continuing to get better – and despite it being unlikely heโ€™s drafted – will likely end up on a 90-man roster leading into training camp. From that point – it will be about proving upside as a pass-rushing interior lineman and providing as much on special teams as possible.

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Johnny Walker, EDGE, Missouri

Johnny Walker, plain and simple, is the reason Iโ€™m writing this article. Standing at 6-foot-3, 250 pounds, Walker is not necessarily the most physically dominant edge rusher but has gotten better every single year at the college level.

Walker started the 2024 season in a bad way – he had only seven pressures in his first five games of the season – and was pretty nonexistent for the Tigers in that time.

At that point, firmly off of NFL boards, Walker started to consistently produce. In his final four games of 2024 in particular, Walker generated 31 total pressures – seven more pressures than anyone else in that time frame.

He showed balance and consistently leveraged his length to affect passing downs. Walker isnโ€™t going to โ€˜wowโ€™ anyone with his pop off of the line, but outlier production towards the end of the season leads me to think one of two things:

1. Walkerโ€™s production over this time span was a fluke/inflated

2. Walker is worth taking a shot on either late on day three or with guaranteed money in free agency following the draft

I lean towards the latter.

And while Walker isnโ€™t the most explosive athlete at EDGE (see his RAS score below), I still land in the camp of him being a sleeper in this draft.

Ultimately, with Walker, youโ€™d be betting on the last four-game sample at the end of his career being the norm, which is unlikely – but itโ€™s not ultimately the worst bet you could make in the sixth or seventh round of the NFL draft – which is what Iโ€™m trying to get at. 

Walker, or Carpenter, or Badger, probably wonโ€™t be relevant after this yearโ€™s NFL draft – but not many guys projected that late make an impact – and each has the opportunity to make it at the NFL level.

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