The NFL draft has come and gone, which means dynasty fantasy football leagues are already in rookie draft season. Everyone knows how valuable players such as Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, and Travis Hunter are – but finding late-round gems is a tough assignment. Last year, it was Bucky Irving who proved to be a 3rd-round steal. Before that, Puka Nacua gave arguably the best rookie season ever for a consensus 4th round rookie pick.
While those types of seasons are rare – there is still value to be had late in rookie drafts – it’s just about sifting through the mud. This year is an interesting class in particular. The top of the draft is loaded – about 12-14 players deep, depending on how you view RJ Harvey, Jaxson Dart, Matthew Golden, and Kaleb Johnson.
After that, there’s some solid bets in the second round – I’m a pretty big fan of Jack Bech in the late second in particular – but after around 25ish picks, the talent really drops off.
With that said, let’s take a look at a few of the rookies that have a chance to outperform their rookie draft ADP.
Terrance Ferguson, TE, Los Angeles Rams
Measurables: 6-foot-5 | 247 pounds | 4.63 40-yard dash | 1.55 10-yard split | 39 inch vertical
Profile: 46th overall pick | 2024: 43 catches, 591 yards, 3 TDs
For years, Sean McVay has been searching for his long-term answer at tight end. The Los Angeles Rams attempted to move up for Brock Bowers in the 2024 NFL Draft, and were rumored to be in on Colston Loveland in this year’s class – before the Chicago Bears selected him with the 10th overall pick. Ferguson is a similar archetype to those players – a large, athletic, pass-catching tight end who projects as a starter at some point on his rookie contract.
This past season, Terrance Ferguson posted a solid yards-per-route-run figure of 2.02 – he was fourth in the pecking order of the Oregon pass-catchers, which included day three selection Tez Johnson (Buccaneers), Evan Stewart (potential 2026 early-round pick), and Traeshon Holden (UDFA, Cowboys). Perhaps not the most impressive target competition, but Oregon ran a spread-type scheme designed to get the ball in space to their more shifty wide receivers.
Perhaps Ferguson’s most impressive trait is his run after catch ability. Ferguson has impressive speed (that 1.55 ten yard split is very real) paired with above-average contact balance. Oregon routinely tried to get him the ball while moving to make the most of this – and is a trait that Sean McVay has not had in a tight end previously.
A lot of times, tight ends with this profile (especially in a deeper tight end class) tend to fall through the cracks – but I’m trusting a former tight end coach’s opinion on this one – especially if there was enough conviction to take him in the top-50 picks, even if that’s not where he was originally projected to go.
Woody Marks, RB, Houston Texans
Measurables: 5-foot-10 | 207 pounds | 4.54 40-yard dash | 1.57 10-yard split | 35 inch vertical
Profile: 116th overall pick | 2024: 245 touches, 1454 total yards, 9 TD
The Houston Texans are one of, if not the most aggressive teams in the NFL when it comes to maneuvering across the draft board. They traded down from the 25th pick in the first round of the draft, and moved up for an offensive tackle on day two. Their most aggressive trade, though, surprisingly came during the fourth round of the draft.
The Texans traded future third- and fifth- round picks for the 116th selection (a fourth rounder) and a late day three pick. So basically – this team paid a premium to get a player they really liked in Woody Marks.
Marks isn’t going to wow you with his measurables – he’s a smaller back who posted a not-great athletic score (see below). But there are two things to consider with Marks in particular:
- Marks immediately projects to be a 3rd-down back. He caught nearly 250 passes throughout his college career – that’s one of the main reasons he received such a high investment level from the Texans.
- Marks has performed better in gap schemes – which is likely the rushing style that new offensive coordinator Nick Caley will install for this season – at least that is what the Rams have mostly utilized in his time there.
So while the early usage might be a bit limited for Woody Marks, it does seem as though the Texans invested in a player that should get some usage as a rookie, but also projects as someone who could carry the workload for this offense in the near future. Marks is available in the late third round of most rookie drafts, and is more than interesting at that point in the draft.
Dont’e Thornton, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Measurables: 6-foot-5 | 205 pounds | 4.30 40-yard dash | 1.51 10-yard split | 33 inch vertical
Profile: 108th overall pick | 2024: 26 catches, 661 yards, 6 TD
The name of Dont’e Thornton’s game is explosiveness. He’s a long, linear, vertical threat who is going to have to beat the route tree allegations in order to have a consistent NFL role. But the physical tools are up there with any wide receiver in this draft class – and Thornton has a chance to compete for playing time from the jump.
Let’s take a look at the Raiders wide out room before we go further:
Jakobi Meyers
Jack Bech*
Tre Tucker
Dont’e Thornton*
Tommy Mellott*
Collin Johnson
*Rookies in 2025
With only two established NFL receivers (none of which were hand-picked by the current front office), Thornton has a better-than-average chance to get early playing time – especially with a coach in Pete Carroll who is not shy about playing rookies early. Thornton easily becomes the best downfield threat in this Raiders offense – which is an area of the field that Geno Smith likes to target.
There will be questions about Thornton’s route running – and that is justified coming from Tennessee’s spread offense that essentially only asked him to run slants, posts, and go routes. That lack of a full route tree is a large reason why Jalin Hyatt (Giants, 2023) and Cedric Tillman (Browns, 2023) struggled out of the gate (and still struggle today in Hyatt’s case).
But there are some flashes of really solid stop-start ability in Thornton’s game, even if those reps are few and far between:
Here’s another example:
So there’s solid route running flashes – with the obvious downfield threat and early playing time advantage that Thorton brings. But the risks are very evident – there’s not much evidence of success for Thornton outside of what Tennessee asked him to do (slants, posts, gos), Thornton only produced one season with more than 500 total yards, and while he’s a downfield threat, the game-to-game variance might be all over the place.
But if you want an athletic bet at WR who should get early playing time – Thornton has a better shot than most 4th round rookie picks at becoming an NFL contributor.
